Gold’s Summer Price Performance and the Prism of Uncertainty

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Golds Summer Price Performance and the Prism of Uncertainty
Shopping for gold now, before the price goes up…
Public domain image by Joseph Hendricks, U.S. Navy

It’s tradition to remind gold investors that summer is the weakest quarter in the year for the metal. Lackluster performances in June, July and August tend to be the norm.

Yet an analysis on Seeking Alpha highlighted why this year, gold’s summer woes could easily end with a tepid June.

Gold often outperforms even during its worst quarter

As the analysis notes, it’s not unheard-of for gold to outperform during its worst quarter. That’s precisely what happened two years ago, as the metal moved to post a then-all-time-high of $2,070 in August.

While the analysis cites stock market panic as the primary reason, the truth is that broad uncertainty was by and large the real driver.

Let’s not forget that, traditionally, all financial markets are more thinly-traded in the summer. Wall Street flees the concrete canyons of Manhattan to sip single-malt Scotch in the Hamptons, or relocate to their summer homes on Nantucket and play sailboat on their yachts.

Financial markets don’t slow down, not exactly, but overall, volume tends to decline. Volatility, too, tends to be lower during the summer months (here’s a 20-year retrospective). Although there’s no obvious and pleasing pattern in the chart, volatility peaks tend to happen less often when so many traders are away from their desks.

Overall, volatility and gold’s price tend to be negatively correlated, albeit weakly. You’d expect a stronger negative correlation, wouldn’t you? Keep in mind, though, that old Wall Street saying, “In times of crisis, all correlations go to 1.”

So how’s this summer shaping up? Another snoozefest for gold?

It probably depends on inflation reports…

Are we one inflation update away from a new gold all-time high?

Today’s economic environment seems even more bullish for gold. May’s 8.6% CPI year-on-year increase marked the third consecutive month of what’s shaping up to be an inflation superspike. May’s report affirmed that, so far, there haven’t been any improvements. Rather the opposite.

Remember, the last two inflation superspikes both happened during  the 1970s, during the stagflation episode. Gold’s price tripled during the first bout, and quadrupled during the fourth.

The theme of inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, and a subsequent train wreck in the stock market? That happened in the 1970s, too. So what’s different this time?

For starters, the benchmark interest rate back then was 13% compared to 1-and-a-fraction percent as it stands today. With that in mind, thinking of bonds as a credible alternative to gold would be outlandish.

The disparity in the rates further places into question what difference the Fed can make to stop inflation – without cranking the Effective Federal Funds Rate into double digits and above. (Just think of the howls we’d hear from Wall Street if that happened…)

The analysis points out that the current inflationary superspike isn’t likely to end until the dollar supply is normalized. In other words, you can’t inflate the money supply by 40% (this isn’t a joke, look at the chart) without expecting these kinds of consequences!

The Fed is trying to do this with tightening, but it’s already caused a recession in the U.S. and other nations, also playing catch-up, seem determined to do the same. From Australia to South Korea, Canada to the Euro zone, a global downturn seems nigh inevitable. (Many are already calling out Fed officials and saying that they’ll have to revert to an easy-money policy sooner rather than later – before even raising interest rates above 2%!).

Say the Fed does blink in the face of a stagnating economy – what prospect will be left besides hyperinflation? Recent polls showed that inflation is at the forefront of Americans’ minds and consumer confidence is low. It’s not clear what could bring a change of hearts.

All of this indicates a heightened demand for gold this summer. Wall Street may check out for the summer. Big traders may not be at their desks. But we seriously doubt that the average American family will be quite so complacent. With dollars buying less and less food and fuel month after month, we fully expect to see a broad-based surge of interest in gold as the inflation-resistant investment par excellence.

Don’t be surprised if the lowest days of gold’s price are behind us. We don’t expect this to be a quiet summer for the gold market.

How Are Sanctions Against Russia Affecting Precious Metals?

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How Are Sanctions Against Russia Affecting Precious Metals?

We’ve yet to hear about a disruption in Russia’s mines. Polymetal and Kinross, two mining companies with operations in Russia, report that the invasion hasn’t affected their day-to-day. Polymetal said that they have a year’s worth of supplies on hand. So what are we to make of the price action in precious metals, particularly in the case of palladium?

A week into the conflict, the “least famous” of the four precious metals jumped to $3,000, a level last seen two years ago. Over the past years, palladium has been a steady outperformer and has caught many off-guard with its valuations. Should things continue this way, we may yet develop a palladium standard.

Part of this has to do with an increase in demand, as the metal is being used in more and more vehicles. But certainly, a sizeable part has to do with the supply picture. Estimates show that last year Russia accounted for 43% of the global palladium production. It has never been the easiest country for a foreign company to start a mining operation in. Now, with Western and even Japanese sanctions against Russia, the supply picture isn’t looking the brightest.

Despite its reassurances, shares of Polymetal dropped. ALROSA, Evraz and Ferrexpo, all miners operating in Russia and Ukraine, mimicked the price movement in the equity market. With nearly half of the world’s palladium being produced in a country that is now essentially cut off from the rest of the world, investors are understandably expecting supply shortages. Though not to the same extent, the same holds true of platinum, 10% of which is produced in Russia.

If palladium and platinum are going to experience a deficit due to production, gold’s might come from demand. The way that the invasion has already begun spilling over into the commodities market is telling. Arcelor Mittal halted operations at its underground iron ore mines in Ukraine and slowed down production at the Kryvyi Rih steel plant. Ferrexpo yelled Force Majeure as the Pivdennyi port terminal was suspended when the invasion started. Polymetal said it’s preparing for all kinds of scenarios, in short. And Japan’s Nippon Steel is looking to Latin America and Australia to source metals due to expected shortages from Russia and Ukraine.

Uranium, coal and aluminum are also some of Russia’s key exports. So it doesn’t take much looking to see how this could spill over into an industrial commodity crisis. Add to this the increased difficulty of operating mines due to inflation, and we have a case for investing in gold.

Silver is, in a sense, positioned to receive benefits from both sides. Its supply comes primarily as a byproduct of mining other metals, like the aforementioned ones. The investment demand is, depending on the chart, somewhere between lower and higher than that of gold. And who could forget that there is a green energy headline around every corner? We’ve heard that precious metals were about to take their turn in this commodity cycle, and it seems like they might loiter for a while.

For Gold Investors, the Glass Is Half Full

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For Gold Investors, the Glass Is Half Full

As VanEck Portfolio Manager Joe Foster notes, for gold last year was a lot less disappointing than traders might have one believe. One of the best things about long-term investment in sound assets is that there is no urgent need for outperformance. And while we didn’t notch a new all-time high gold price, we got plenty of solid footing and a stage for gold to continue its climb.

Gold’s price trend in context

Perhaps the most important takeaway is that gold’s price averaged $1,250 from 2013 and 2019. In a little over a month, it will be two years since the market crash which redefined the word uncertainty. Despite a somewhat steep fall from its all-time high, gold’s price since the crash has averaged $1,817. That’s a 44% increase based on average prices. We could argue that gold’s price should be higher, given the macroeconomic conditions and ongoing uncertainty, but that’s just speculation.

The fact is that gold’s average price surged since the Covid crash.

Foster notes that gold is at historically high levels even after a year of many factors working against it.

The dollar’s effect on gold’s price

Despite a tidal wave of multi-trillion-dollar stimulus printed in the last two years, the U.S. dollar index ended 2021 up 6.4%. And perhaps because of this stimulus, the year was marked by absolutely manic risk-on investment. Equities, real estate, crypto, junk bonds, leveraged loans, SPACs, the rare whiskey index and cartoon monkey images all skyrocketed in price. This is the so-called “everything bubble,” brought to you by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with a combination of massive money-printing and near-zero interest rates that pushed investors desperate for yield into some of the strangest corners of the market (and even invented new ones).

Well, that’s one consequence of the Fed’s actions. The other? Levels of inflation across the board that dwarf anything we’ve seen in the last 40 years. We have to go back to 1984, the tail-end of the Carter-era stagflation episode, to see anything like it.

Here’s what gold has going for it

With gold showing exceptional resilience even in such an inflationary environment, we’d do well to go over some of the things that are working in the metal’s favor. And there’s no untying them from inflation.

Foster urges anyone who thinks that gold missed an inflationary period’s upside to reconsider. There have only been two such stretches in the last 50 years, one in the 1970s and the other between 2003 and 2008. We all know what happened to gold prices after each. Unsurprisingly, both were very much characterized by the same kind of not taking inflation seriously until we have to sentiment that we’re seeing from the Fed today.

Foster thinks we’re witnessing the start of a wage/price spiral that will keep driving prices up (though arguably it’s already well underway). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 18.8% in November (latest figures) year over year. The priciest housing market in history coincides with a lack of job creation, leaving the U.S. with 21 million fewer people employed than before the Covid crash.

Foster points out that inflation-adjusted, average hourly earnings have declined by 2.7% so far this year. In an example of inflation psychology setting in, unions are negotiating to get cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) written into their wage contracts. All this, and we’re expecting yet another year of spikes in prices of basic goods amid ongoing supply chain disruptions.

What about the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates?

As for policy, the federal government wants to print and spend more money. The Federal Reserve is taking it away. At least, they’ve threatened to take it away…

UBS analyzed the Fed’s previous three rate hiking schedules, those in 1999, 2004 and 2015. As was the case last year, gold pulled back 5%-10% six months before a hike and then gained 10%-20% after each initial hike.

It goes without saying that the fourth hiking schedule could make way for gains beyond even those. So even the most long-term gold investor should find plenty of good news for gold’s price in the year ahead.

Surging Inflation Launches Gold Rocket “To the Moon”

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Inflation is the fuel that will send the gold rocket to the moon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s December 2021 inflation update pushed the cost of living to a nearly 40-year high of 7% after nineteen consecutive months of increases. A far cry from the Federal Reserve’s self-imposed target of 2%.

The bad news is, inflation is most likely headed higher. The most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which tracks cost increases at the manufacturing level, measured 9.7%. The official BLS press release didn’t even try to sugarcoat the news…

the largest calendar-year increase since data were first calculated in 2010.

Gold futures climbed and continue to climb on this double helping of bad news.

As Peter Spina, president and CEO of Goldseek put it,

The most important takeaway for gold here is that gold is a rocket ship and inflation is its fuel. Now with inflation showing itself to be baked into the system and growing recognition of inflation, gold is going to benefit in a big way.

The U.S. dollar fell against most currencies after these reports. It seems as though global traders aren’t really expecting the Federal Reserve to follow through on its 3 predicted price hikes in 2022 (or maybe they’re already priced in?)

Jeff Wright, chief investment officer at Wolfpack Capital, said of Powell’s recent comments,

No fireworks, rather dovish and no surprises. Gold has done well with Powell’s ‘go slow’ management of the Fed.

On the downside, Wright said there’s a possibility that both quantitative tightening and tapering could accelerate, which would stop a gold rally in its tracks.

What are the odds?

Bond king on “recession watch”

Jeffrey Gundlach, the billionaire “Bond King” doesn’t think the Federal Reserve will be able to thread the needle and bring the economy to a soft landing.

Inflationary pressure is building. If we look at the economy, it’s undeniable that’s been supported by the quantitative easing and the Fed’s balance sheet expansion. And since that’s going away, it is just not plausible to think that we don’t have more headwinds in 2022 for risk assets and, ultimately, for the economy. The signals from the bond market are starting to look a little bit like a pre-recessionary period.

Gundlach believes gold is the best asset to hold in periods like this, when inflation consumes so much of our purchasing power and the world’s central banks don’t seem able to contain the chaos.

He’s bullish on gold because he’s bearish on the long-term value of the U.S. dollar. And when dollars shrink in value, it takes more and more of them to buy the same amount of gold. (From this perspective, buying gold early offers a sort of discount…)

Gold Approaches $1,900 While Investors Mull Fed Chair Powell’s Reappointment

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Gold Approaches 1,900 While Investors Mull Fed Chair Powell Reappointment
Photo by Aaron Munoz

Although analysts expect that gold could have a very volatile closing of the year, the consensus is that the metal is eyeing $1,900 as the next level to breach in the near-term, via Kitco. Market participants are always keeping a watchful eye on the Federal Reserve, so it’s no surprise that questions over the next Fed Chair nominee have caused a bit of tumult.

Some believe that there is a strong chance that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard could take Powell’s spot after recent dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s actions. A Brainard appointment would result in a major shift in short-term yields, said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya, along with delaying hike expectations even further.

However, Moya noted that a Powell renomination would be far from negative for gold. Risk remains to the upside, and hikes are questionable regardless of who’s helming the central bank. Pepperstone’s head of research Chris Weston said that a new Fed Chair would cause the kind of uncertainty that most market participants dislike, yet that volatility seems to be in the cards regardless. (Update: Powell was renominated to his current position on November 22. His last Senate confirmation won 84 of 100 votes in 2018, so Congressional resistance is extremely unlikely.)

Weston expects an anything-goes December, partially because the U.S. Treasury will exhaust its measures by the middle of the month as the U.S. debt ceiling issue once again comes to the forefront. The central bank’s meeting, which should announce the tapering schedule, could be another stir for the markets.

TD Securities said that gold remains vulnerable to priced-in rate hikes, even in the absence of any evidence that they will materialize. So long as this remains in view, the bank believes that gold could come under further selling, especially if prices fall below the $1,840 level. Moya expects a very volatile week ahead, saying that gold could trade in a range as wide as $1,840-$1,890.

If the metal does dip to $1,840 or below, Standard Chartered precious metal analyst Suki Cooper expects an influx of buyers on every turn due to gold’s fundamental picture. She noted that gold’s headwinds are mostly absent and not of particular consequence. On the other hand, the upside to physical gold ownership is tremendous. Growth risks, elevated inflation, an expected pullback in the U.S. dollar and real yields establishing themselves in negative territory are far more pronounced than anything pushing gold downwards.

However November’s price action plays out, Moya expects investors to start pouring into gold as an inflation hedge next month and push it above the $1,900 level. This could be expedited by both uncertainty coming from Europe or any number of data reports scheduled for this week turning out disappointing.

Agnew Gold Mine Now Powered by Australia’s Largest Hybrid, Renewable Microgrid

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Agnew Gold Mine Now Powered by Australias Largest Hybrid, Renewable Microgrid

With so little in terms of positive mining developments since the industry went on a cost-cutting spree post-2011, it can feel as if any news are great news. Yet the latest gold mining trend surrounding Gold Fields’ mine in Australia go past discovering new ore or opening a new spot, and have to do with innovations in an industry sometimes considered stagnant.

Gold Fields is one of the largest gold producers in the world, with a total of nine mines spread across Australia, Peru, South Africa and West Africa and Chile. Its Agnew gold mine in Australia is now the testing grounds for the largest hybrid renewable microgrid in the country.

The Agnew gold mine is the first gold mine in the country to be powered primarily by wind-generated energy, as part of an ongoing bid to utilize renewable energy sources on a global scale. The venture was funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), which gave $13.5 million through its Advancing Renewables Program.

The microgrid itself is constructed, powered and maintained by global energy producer EDL. In a press release, the company shared some specifics pertaining to the microgrid, revealing that it amounts to 56MW, 50%-60% of which come frome renewable sources. According to the press release, weather conditions can bring the percentage up to 85.

CEO James Harman boasted that the mine is a showcase of both engineering prowess and persistence, as the project was launched amid bushfires, supply chain disruptions and a global crisis that saw the mining industry come under even more setbacks. Furthermore, while wind is the primary one, the CEO stated that the project utilizes as many as five different sources of renewable energy.

Stuart Mathews, Gold Fields Executive Vice President for Australasia, also said that the company is proud to partner with EDL in such a manner, underscoring that both the construction and operation of the project went well. As it stands now, EDL owns close to 100 renewable energy stations that span throughout Australia, North America and Europe.

While not explicitly stating that the technology would be utilized in its other mines, Mathews noted that the Agnew mine has provided the company with a framework on how to utilize renewable energy in its operations worldwide. Having the gold mining industry act as the center of renewable energy innovations during a time of peak appetite for these solutions is indeed promising. Perhaps the success of the Agnew gold mine and its renewable microgrid can bring some welcome sparks to the sector.

Inflation? Stagflation? Gold Is Fine With Either

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Inflation? Stagflation? Gold is fine with either...

Gold’s price has seen some action recently, again climbing past strong resistance at $1,800 to a high of $1,813 before finishing the day above $1,790. Does this mean that market participants are finally, but very slowly, waking up to the economic reality? TD Securities’ analysts seem to think so, having initiated a $1,850 and $2,000 long call spread for gold’s price for April.

In their recent report, the commodity analysts said that inflation, stagflation and dubious tightening all play a part in the bullish forecast for the next four months. Even with nothing to support the notion, the markets still seem to be fully pricing in some kind of Federal Reserve tightening. This includes a reduction of the balance sheet, hikes and so on. This sentiment has been weighing heavily on gold over the past months, with November being the targeted date. It remains to be seen how the Fed intends to tighten its monetary policy in the current environment.

Wade Guenther, managing partner at Wilshire Phoenix, recently told Kitco that he believes the Fed won’t be able to rein in inflation. Guenther has also dismissed the idea that supply chain disruptions are being caused by consumer spending, something that has garnered quite a bit of ridicule as of late, and supports a far more grounded view that the cause is across-the-board inflation.

With the ever-hawkish Fed Chair Jerome Powell going as far as to admit that these disruptions could persist well into next year, it’s turning inflation into an even bigger problem, and also a worldwide one. In Canada, the latest report on consumer prices showed that they have risen to their highest level in more than a decade.

As TD Securities’ analysts noted, this is part of why stagflation is becoming a greater concern with every passing week. The threat of energy prices rising has turned into what the analysts call a global energy crisis, one that seems to be intensifying. There is also much to be said about crumbling economies, an issue that everyone seems to be ignoring right now. With hyperinflation being mentioned on one end and parallels being drawn with the Great Depression on the other, we might yet see the term stagflation redefined.

Another interesting bit of information is that speculators have, mostly based on optimistic sentiment, liquidated more than 190 tons of paper gold this year. Yet the massive dump, as opposed to slicing the metal’s price, only seems to have thwarted its rise for the time being.

Regardless of whether we see inflation or stagflation, TD Securities says that the conflux of factors appears to have primed the gold market for a very strong move upwards by early next year. In the shorter term, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said that a breakout above $1,835 could move a lot of interest away from the stock market and into gold.

Gold Bullion and Coin Demand Just Keeps Rising: World Gold Council

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Gold Bullion and Coin Demand Just Keeps Rising: World Gold Council
Photo by Zlaťáky.cz

As seen in the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report for 2021’s second quarter, gold managed to shed its losses from the first quarter and post an overall 4% price gain in Q2. Certain hawkish statements made by the Federal Reserve weren’t enough to balance inflation concerns, a weaker dollar and negative real interest rates.

Gold demand just keeps growing

Gold demand intensified on all fronts, including a somewhat surprising return by funds after their massive outflows in the first quarter. While the report states that there is still room for improvement in terms of jewelry demand, consumer purchases have nonetheless posted a considerable recovery, especially as economic conditions remain sluggish in many areas of the world.

Overall, jewelry demand in Q2 totaled 390.7 tons, a 60% year-on-year increase. The biggest buyer was China, whose 146.9 tons amounted to a 62% year-on-year increase. Chinese consumers purchased 338 tons of gold in the first six months of 2021, a 122% year-on-year increase. Remarkably, the figure is also 6% higher than the amount of jewelry purchased in the country in first half of 2019. Despite economic woes, India posted a 25% year-on-year increase in jewelry purchases, with similar rises happening across most of the Middle East.

Western jewelers also had a notable showing, with 37.7 tons of jewelry demand in Q2 2021 marking the strongest showing for the quarter since 2007. Investment demand in the U.S. was another important point, with retail investors buying 30 tons in the second quarter. The amount of gold bought in the first half of 2021 was brought to a record 61.7 tons. Chinese retailers and individual investors made the most of lower premiums and a stronger economy, buying 57.3 tons of gold in Q2. This represented a 41% year-on-year increase and a 16% increase over the second quarter of 2019.

Worldwide demand for gold bars saw an 18% year-on-year increase, while gold coin demand rose by 7% compared to the same quarter last year. And not all of the buyers were private investors.

Central bank gold buying significantly higher

Central banks posted their third consecutive quarter of net buying despite many instances of nations resorting to selling. Demand from the official sector was all the more notable due to the diversity of buyers, with Thailand purchasing 90.2 tons of gold in the first half of the year. It was joined by many other relative newcomers, such as Hungary which bought 62.09 tons of gold during the same period and Uzbekistan with purchases amounting to 25.50 tons.

The overall 214% year-on-year increase in central bank purchases was conspicuous, but perhaps expected given the conditions of last year.

Industrial demand for gold rising, too

Despite disruptions in the technological sector, gold demand was still strong across the board, with an overall 18% year-on-year increase of 80 tons bought during the second quarter. Electronics demand rose the most, 16%, while dentistry recorded its first year-on-year increase in 17 years with 12%.

Other industrial demand rose from 8.3 tons in Q1 to 10.8 tons in Q2, a 31% year-on-year increase.

Gold Rises on Inflation, Exhaustion of Stock Market Optimism, and This

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Gold Rises on Exhaustion of Stock Market Optimism, Fears of Inflation, and This
Photo by Sabrinna Ringquist

Sentiment from both Wall Street and Main Street has gotten progressively more bullish on gold over the past few weeks, and with good reason. Gold has now posted its third straight week of gains and appears to be looking for another resistance level to breach.

The metal’s move past, and stay above, the important $1,800 level has been in focus for many. Friday’s trading session had it inching towards $1,830 before closing the day above $1,810 in yet another example of bullish action that has been on full display for nearly a month.

Gold may drop before it launches much higher: Newton Advisors

Newton Advisors’ founder Mark Newton says that, from a broader standpoint, gold’s price could experience another significant dip below $1,750 that would let investors get in on the action. Newton told CNBC that this is because June and July are traditionally the weakest months for gold in a year, making the latest run all the more impressive.

Regardless of whether gold experiences such a pullback, Newton says $1,855 is the next level to watch out for and that breaking it will most likely have gold pushing towards new highs. The gains over the past weeks came in good part over doubts that the global economy will recover as some optimistic forecasts are claiming.

Inflation is only the second most-important issue: Mobius Capital Partners

It can also be interpreted as an exhaustion of optimism in the more risk-on markets, a stance that was very much prominent heading up to June. Seasoned investor and co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners Mark Mobius believes that the narrow focus on inflation has actually sidelined a much bigger problem.

As investors and people worry about prices of goods and services rising, many of them forget that the true cause of this is currency devaluation, said Mobius in a recent interview. Mobius is one of a number of prominent experts who doubt in the accuracy or even altogether relevancy of the CPI as an inflation gauge.

While the CPI rose this year at its fastest pace since 2008, Mobius says that it leaves too many factors out and that prices are actually rising much more rapidly. The spike in prices, says Mobius, is the result of a currency losing its value, as has unfortunately been the case throughout history. This is why companies treat any spike in inflation as currency debasement, and why gold is likely to come into prominence as a store of wealth over the coming months.

Mobius’ comments over currency devaluation come during a time when the U.S. dollar faces some of the biggest threats to its status in a long time, partly due to money printing and balance sheet expansion and partly due to a broader loss of faith in fiat. In general, Mobius expects gold to continue moving up along with inflation, especially since central banks are actively targeting it instead of attempting to deflate their currencies as part of standard policy.

Wall Street, Main Street Bullish on Gold

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Wall Street sentiment regarding gold’s price trajectory is shifting to the upside in considerable fashion, joining the already-optimistic Main Street traders. The Kitco gold price survey from last week showed 69.2% of Wall Street analysts surveyed expecting prices to move higher this week. No bearish votes were cast, with the remaining 30.8% predicted a neutral or sideways-only price movement.

Main Street was a bit more evenly spread, though still heavily favoring the upside. Nearly half of retail investors surveyed (49.6%) forecast higher prices this week, while 25.8% were bearish and 24.6% were neutral.

Despite little price action last week, analysts generally agree that a move to the $1,750 support level will be met with a strong correction, while a breach of the $1,800 level will continue to establish new highs for the metal.

Specific analyst commentary on gold in the short term

Marc Chandler, managing director at Global Forex, views a scenario where gold touches $1,750 before bouncing to the $1,800-1,815 range this week as the likeliest.

Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff also finds the range important, noting that a move above $1,800 would set the trend for prices to go higher.

RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis is especially focused on a close above the $1,820 level. If it happens, Pavilonis thinks the market could be in for some explosive price action. Besides gold finding consistent support above the 200-day moving average, Pavilonis also said that the latest bout of strength in the U.S. dollar appears to be exhausting.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, is also notably bullish on gold. Cieszynski pointed to strong technicals as a reason to believe that gold might be getting ready to break out from the aforementioned range and continue moving up.

How is recent news affecting gold?

In general, the lack of any notable rise in gold price has been attributed to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and corresponding data. The dollar continues to hold ground amid both peak inflationary expectations and rising inflation across the board. The latest data reports were likewise a mixed bag, with better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls being met with a rise in unemployment.

The data still fell short of optimistic forecasts, however, and both Treasury yields and the greenback fell after the report. Analysts also noted that a lower trading volume on Monday due to the 4th of July holiday in the U.S. could result in some additional delays before gold finds a spot above $1,800.

Short-term vs. long-term views

Although analysts do enjoy attempts to predict the future, if you don’t work in the financial news industry, you’re probably better off keeping your eye on the horizon. When you look at gold’s performance over time, that’s when it really begins to shine.