On the back of a strong 2019, one analyst sees an even better year for gold in 2020. Here’s why he thinks the metal may surpass $2,000.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, shared his prediction for gold’s trajectory in the near future. The metal had most recently shot up above $1,600, the highest level in seven years, riding on high tensions between the U.S. and Iran. And although it has retraced since then, it remains perched above last year’s high of $1,553, last seen in 2013.
As great as gold’s gains have been thus far, Jensen sees a lot more positive price action ahead. In the interview, Jensen pointed out that the threat of a military conflict with Iran wasn’t the only source of concerns, as the metal had also been appreciating steadily amid ongoing trade disputes with China.
Like other experts, Jensen thinks that trade issues between the U.S. and China are far from resolved and will continue to prompt safe-haven buying, adding that the conflict with Iran likewise hasn’t fully simmered down. Furthermore, Jensen potentially sees a notable increase in geopolitical flare-ups ahead that could send gold climbing to $2,000 this year, above its all-time peak of $1,911.
Besides geopolitical uncertainty, Jensen expects central bank policies to remain supportive of gold, just as they had been in the second half of 2019. The metal began its steady climb at the beginning of summer, as central banks around the world suddenly turned dovish and followed in the Federal Reserve’s stead by slicing interest rates, which is generally seen as a major boon for gold. Since then, global negative-yielding debt has reached a dizzying peak of over $15 trillion, creating a dearth of safe-haven opportunities.
Jensen thinks that the Fed is likely to push interest cutting even further this year by possibly slicing nominal rates to zero in order to combat slowing growth and the looming threat of a U.S. recession, a red flag that became especially prominent in the second half of 2019. On the flip side, Jensen also sees the Fed potentially choosing to usher in a period of high inflation, giving gold another major price driver.
Jensen’s view is shared by several other notable fund managers, starting with his colleague Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater. A long-time advocate of the yellow metal who favors a gold-heavy strategy for his top-performing fund, Dalio doubled down on his usual sentiment last year by urging investors to start buying gold amid what he sees as a paradigm shift with loose monetary policies across the globe. Around the same time, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also stated that he is adamantly long gold due to expectations of a decline in the greenback’s value.