Despite the recent pullback in the price of gold, this analyst outlines why the yellow metal has proven so resilient this year and why it will soon head higher.
Despite having pulled back as the year draws to a close, gold is still up more than 18% year-to-date. Forbes contributor Naeem Aslam examines the factors that made way for the yellow metal’s spectacular show of strength this year.
Aslam finds it particularly notable that gold has posted one of its best performances in recent memory alongside a climb in the S&P 500 Index. Normally, a greater appetite for risk investments translates to less interest in safety assets, but this has not been the case. A strong equity market usually acts as gold’s biggest competitor and headwind, yet investors have been keen to hedge their bets with plenty of gold.
One reason for this could be a lack of faith in the strength of the domestic and global economy. Various red flags have risen over the past few months to suggest a major crisis is on the way, not the least of which has been a Federal Reserve gauge that warned of a potential domestic recession in the near term. The disappointing US ISM manufacturing number released last week showed that U.S. factories are feeling the pressure of the U.S.-China trade war. The report joins dismal factory data from across Europe that suggests an economic contraction is underway. Aslam believes that the current state of affairs will eventually take down the labor market and that a trade deal will soon become a necessity.
Ultimately, however, Aslam finds the action on the charts to be the most telling. Gold’s technicals are currently boasting several optimistic signals, with perhaps the most significant being the formation of a bullish triangle. This move suggests gold prices could be headed above $1,650.
The drop in volatility in the gold market shows that traders have enough faith in the metal and are buying at a steady pace. Aslam notes that the reasoning behind this lies in the stock market’s conspicuous run and fears of a potential downturn.
This explains why gold has consistently returned to the $1,500 level after each dip, and Aslam sees the ability to cling to this key resistance level very much important to keep the gains going. Aslam added that momentum is clearly in gold’s favor despite happenings in other markets, and that traders are likely to keep pushing the action for the foreseeable future. With so many other factors propelling gold higher, such as global central bank rate cuts and general uncertainty, it shouldn’t be a stretch to see the $1,650 level that the chart is pointing to sooner rather than later.