While the metal will likely prosper no matter who is in office, Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank explains why a Biden administration could be particularly bullish.
Analysts appear to be in unison when it comes to the coming U.S. election’s ability to shake the markets one way or the other. Given this year’s events, both candidates have shifted the focus of their presidential run to one that almost entirely revolves around revitalizing the nation’s economy.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, is among the pundits who expect gold prices to show strong sensitivity heading up to November 3 in regards to the buildup and the outcome. Hansen believes that a Biden victory in particular, including an early leg up in the run, would be bullish for gold given the candidate’s restructuring plan.
Biden’s team hasn’t hesitated to unveil plans for a multi-trillion stimulus program that would go into action within the first three months of the Democratic nominee’s presidency. With trillions of dollars already being printed this year and desires by officials to stay the course despite President Trump’s disagreements, Hansen sees this as perhaps the deciding factor that would keep pushing gold prices forward. The promise of another historic fiscal stimulus would not only meet sky-high inflationary expectations, but also ensure that the Federal Reserve gets its wish when it comes to keeping interest rates around zero until 2023 at the very least.
Hansen also expects gold to continue to display an uncharacteristic amount of volatility, though few could argue this hasn’t been a good thing for holders of the metal. After soaring to a new all-time high of above $2,000 in August, gold inched down slower amid various uncertainties, appearing to find strong support around the $1,850 level. However, the metal has shot back up once again, hitting $1,931 on Friday and therefore once again passing its 2011 high.
While Hansen hesitated to make predictions when it comes to gold returning to the $2,000 level, he took full note of September’s exceedingly strong price action. Throughout the month, investors across the board continued to pile into gold as a hedge against inflation, buoying prices even amid high volatility. This has perhaps best been exemplified by what looks to be a persistent interest in the metal among institutions. Asset managers, especially those of pension funds, have grown to view gold as a necessity in their portfolios and have helped propel demand for the metal to a record of 111 million ounces so far this year.
The driving force behind this has largely been singled out as an environment of plummeting negative real yields and rising inflation, one that is unlikely to change irrespective of the outcome. And though Hansen tethers more bouts of explosive price action in the gold market to a Biden presidential win, it’s worth noting that gold reversed its bearish course during the incumbent’s stay in the office in 2018, along with Trump and some of his key personnel being vocal proponents of a return to the gold standard.